2021 Wide Receiver Target Predictions

By: Chris Pena (@mizritv2)

2021 Wide Receiver Target Predictions

These projections have been sorted in descending order based off one of two prediction models (noted as ‘GBR’ and ‘LR’ predictions). Because each prediction model uses a different algorithm, they produce values that can vary by a substantial amount. The reasoning behind sorting by one model over the other is due to their algorithmic properties – how they come up with their predictions.

Without getting too technical, GBR, or gradient boosting regression, uses decision trees to predict values. Think of this like a game of Heads Up where the algorithm asks thousands of questions to determine the answer. After a while it ‘learns to ask’ the right questions in order to give the best prediction.

Logistic regression (LR) takes a slightly different approach in that it uses more statistical probability with its determinations. If we keep the Heads Up example, this would be similar to getting a hint of the answer before making a prediction.

Full disclosure: I am not a professional data scientist! I am a master’s student with a focus in big data analytics, and an interest particularly in machine learning. Namely because I can use it with fantasy football research. The projections are the result from a self-directed project. These projections are meant to be used as a baseline for further analysis, and not a complete player-to-number projection.

17 Game Target Predictions - WR 2021.xlsx

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